The Great Unwinding Of The Silicon Valley, Part 1.
You may have noticed, if you have been around since at least the 1990s, that technology innovation has accelerated rapidly until about 2012. If you really think about it, you can name a few top line innovations and thousands of companies that have built on these innovations. If you have been an observer since the 1970s, it may be more clear just how different the world of technology innovation has become. Now some will argue vigorously that actually innovation, large shifts in the technological landscape defined by a major hardware or software invention, is about the same. When you study it, actually, it slowed down considerable after the 2008. We will explore this aspect in this article. There are many factors that contributed to this shift, but one is the innovation cycle.
Today, The Silicon Valley Bank was closed by authorities that regulate California banks. Although this precise action could not have been clearly predictive, the ultimate shift in the Silicon Valley could have been clearly identified if you had a sober empirical research platform and understood the realities of the innovation cycle.
I will add there were also significantly important complications that include a desire to injure the crypto world by purposely injuring other banks, not Silicon Valley Bank directly, but the domino effect of closing other banks impacted this bank and the rising inflation rate while banks were holding US Government, long term bonds, as cash reserves during a rapid increase in the Federal Reserve Fund Rate. However, this all took place in a time when a number of converging cycles made a very bad situation far worse.
“The world is not a steady-state system. There are recurring patterns of change, and the art of forecasting lies in recognizing these patterns”Edward R Dewey, 1933
In 1930 Edward R. Dewey was appointed Chief Economics Analyst for the United States Department of Commerce by President Herbert Hoover. He was commissioned with the task of finding out what had caused the market crash in 1928. At the time, most economists had not offered up any real insights on the actual underpinnings that caused the market failures. Edward was a very conservative man and spent a number of months, with a very sizable staff, studying the subject before he completed his presidential report to Herbert Hoover. Dewey’s report was also requested by the Federal Reserve to provide recommendations for preventing a similar economic crisis from occurring in the future.
Dewey’s multi-year, over 500 person research found a most confounding yet simple conclusion:
Everything has a knowable and repeatable cycle. And sometimes multiple cycles come together to cause especially large dips or peaks. The impact of a Cycle or group of Cycles can be quantified and objectively analyzed. These Cycles have a clear sine-wave pattern and many times synchronize in some of the most distant, clearly unrelated categories.
Cycles, why they sound almost irresistibly like voodoo or even astrology. However, Dewey dutifully reported his findings even in the face of the facts and the uncomfortable empirical research he discovered. And these facts were a landmark: he found more than 500 different cycle phenomena in 36 different areas of knowledge, as per his report.
Today very few have heard of Edward R. Dewey and the few that have may think of him as a “charlatan”. Not because they have seen his work and have a substantial counterargument, just the parroting they read from a “debunking” site, even as they overlook and ignore the actual details his Presidential report and his substantial later work at his institute.
So what does Dewey have to do with The Unwinding Of The Silicon Valley? He is but a component to the innovation cycles I have identified through the use of custom AI and standing on the shoulders of some of the greatest minds in history, like Edward R. Dewey.
In this member only article, we will explore one of the factors that has lead to a dramatic shift in the Silicon Valley and practical ways you can adjust, survive and even thrive in what is the fog of chaos.
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