The Bitter Harvest.
The U.S. Transformation Of Farmland.
The family run farm has become just about a memory. Some may say: “So what else is new?”. This simple point will define the next 100 years. The roll-up of farms around the world, but in particular the U.S. will remake the country. The average age of a farmer in the U.S. is 58, and roughly four times more farmers are older than age 65 than under age 35. There’s an entire generation of new owners that could be waiting in the wings, using modern tools and family wisdom, but they do not have the funds. And many families have been incentivized to sell and not transfer the farms. There are new buyers. Most of the new buyers are investors (Foreign countries, hedge funds, insurance companies, “Farm tech” startups”, etc), and it drives up prices and makes it harder or impossible for generational, new/beginning farmers to get started.
More than 31 million acres of U.S. agricultural land have been irrevocably lost to urban expansion since 1982 and an additional 175 acres of farm and ranch land are lost every hour to make way to housing and other industries. The land that is being lost is some of the most productive agricultural land in the country.
There are about 19.7 million full-time and part-time jobs related to the agricultural and food sectors, 10.3 percent of total U.S. employment in 2020. Direct on-farm employment accounted for about 2.6 million of these jobs, or 1.4 percent of U.S. employment.
Many will say that corporate farms like corporate food are more profitable and optimized for efficiency. If we use standard quarterly analysis, this may appear to be accurate. However, in the long term this will not be the case. There is a wisdom that comes from local family farms that can not transfer and scale with a corporate structure. Centralized planning has failed humanity when expanded to a national scale when it comes to farming, no matter what clothes it is dressed in during this epoch.
Complicating this all is the realities of the world as it is in 2022. We have issues with:
- War
- Inflation
- Pandemic
- Energy Collapse
- Supply Chain Collapse
- Cyclical Droughts
- (X)
Just one of these issues alone will drive up prices and impact your life in ways few alive in the U.S. has ever seen. It will not just be up to triple digit increases in costs, it will be a constrained supply to full sacristy up ahead.
This all conspired to make 2022 the start of the most difficult harvest in years, perhaps a century. It will persist for quite a while as the points we present above play out.
In this member’s only article, we will explore pragmatic things you can do today that can help you face what is ahead. Perhaps for the first time in many lives, you may be able to have a hedge to not only survive in the chaos ahead, but perhaps thrive. There will be a massive wealth transfer ahead that will impact everyone in the world, it is my hope this is one of the ways you can get something you will lose, back.If you are a member, thank you. To become a member, please click on the link below and join us.
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JO and CAFE only mentioned in passing. Any details?
Jay, thank you. I wanted to mention them and do a little more work on what they are about. I will update soon. Coffee will be interesting.